V Australia BNE-HKG?

[ANstar]

But have to wonder if VA can fill enough of a 777-300ER given QF can only justify an A330

I agree, though I am sure VA will offer much lower fares so should be able to pick up some extra pax that way. I reckon they'l also get a fair amount of connecting pax from places like AKL/MEL/SYD to help fill it up, where as for QF they have direct flights from MEL/SYD etc that would eat into their conecting traffic ex bne.

[oz_mark]

But have to wonder if VA can fill enough of a 777-300ER given QF can only justify an A330 (an upgrade from the previous 767 they used to op on the route).

I guess the issue for QF is that they don't have many aircraft that fit between an A330 and a 747. So if a 747 is too big, what else could they use?

[777]

Seems like an interesting development.

Connects to Virgin Atlantic and on to London in HKG and to the various Pac Blue/ Virgin Blue connections from Brisbane. The times are apparently GMT not local times so they're not so bad: Leaves BNE at 1400 gets to HKG at 2050 Leaves HKG at 2330 gets to BNE at 10am next day.

Routes to HKG are not ones that have had much discounting so i think there is a lot of potential to increase demand there. I've had half a mind to go to HKG for ages and i've never seen a very cheap fare there. Unlike Singapore, Bangkok, etc which all have heavy discounting at times.

I wonder if they'd consider interlining/codeharing with someone out of HKG to places like Shanghai, Beijing, etc. These are also places where there is some demand (and plenty of latent tourist interest) but few discounts. If they could team up with someone and offer cheap connections, i think they'd stimulate plenty of demand there too.

777.

[fortymilliondaggers]

Viva Macau have made a route from Sydney to Macau work for nearly 2 years now. Their business is mainly Australian-Chinese. They have 2 aircraft in total and fly some other (shorter) routes in Asia. Very easy to get return fares for around $700, which is very well priced. They've had plans to also fly to Brisbane and Melbourne (and I'm sure there's a market for this sort of thing from those cities as well) but my understanding is the lack of planes has delayed these plans.

[NM]

I agree, though I am sure VA will offer much lower fares so should be able to pick up some extra pax that way. I reckon they'l also get a fair amount of connecting pax from places like AKL/MEL/SYD to help fill it up, where as for QF they have direct flights from MEL/SYD etc that would eat into their conecting traffic ex bne.

Just having lower fares may not be enough. The current non-stop capacity between BNE and HKG is about 840 seats (1 x QF A333, 1 x CX A333 and 1 x CX A343). So either VA (with 363 seats) has to steal 40% of the combined QF/CX capacity to fill their 777-300ER, or they need to stimulate additional passenger demand for the route. I suspect QF and CX would be willing to undertake a fare discounting regime to retain at least some of those 40% of passengers. Of course these numbers are assuming full aircraft which is not a valid assumption. But the general idea remains the same.

VA would be introducing Premium Economy on the route, where neither current operates offer PE.

But not much point in going to KUL given the current fare war between Air Asia X and Malaysian. And SIN has always been a SQ and QF stronghold with good connections to Europe. QF has moved many Thailand services to JQ. So HKG does seem to be one of the more viable options for VA to consider in these tough economic times.

[ANstar]

So either VA (with 363 seats) has to steal 40% of the combined QF/CX capacity to fill their 777-300ER, or they need to stimulate additional passenger demand for the route..

They won't just be going for BNE-HKG pax.

They will be going for AKL-LHR (via BNE/HKG) and BNE-LHR pax...

MEL-BNE-HKG etc etc

So it seems like a good option for them....

[NM]

I guess the issue for QF is that they don't have many aircraft that fit between an A330 and a 747. So if a 747 is too big, what else could they use?

But QF has not required more than A330 for HKG services. They only operate it 4 times a week! They made do with a 767 for a long time when CX were operating regional config aircraft. I have not been watching, but have not noted QF97/98 as being regularly sold out like QF51/52 to/from SIN.

CX has the advantage of daytime services in each direction.

[NM]

They won't just be going for BNE-HKG pax.

They will be going for AKL-LHR (via BNE/HKG) and BNE-LHR pax...

MEL-BNE-HKG etc etc

True, so a chance for adding demand to the existing route.

So it seems like a good option for them....

Indeed, and I hope they can make it work.

[NM]

Just having lower fares may not be enough. The current non-stop capacity between BNE and HKG is about 840 seats (1 x QF A333, 1 x CX A333 and 1 x CX A343). So either VA (with 363 seats) has to steal 40% of the combined QF/CX capacity to fill their 777-300ER, or they need to stimulate additional passenger demand for the route. I suspect QF and CX would be willing to undertake a fare discounting regime to retain at least some of those 40% of passengers. Of course these numbers are assuming full aircraft which is not a valid assumption. But the general idea remains the same.

What I dod not consider here is that QF97 only operates 4 x weekly, CX102 operates 6 x weekly, and CX156 operates 4 x weekly. So a daily 777-300 is going to add more than 40% weekly capacity to the route.

[docjames]

The current non-stop capacity between BNE and HKG is about 840 seats (1 x QF A333, 1 x CX A333 and 1 x CX A343). So either VA (with 363 seats) has to steal 40% of the combined QF/CX capacity to fill their 777-300ER, or they need to stimulate additional passenger demand for the route.

VA would be introducing Premium Economy on the route, where neither current operates offer PE.

Y+ would be good to add onto the route.

Remember, they may not go daily (may be 4/week) so may not push capacity 40%. The right offering will grow the market to some extent anyway, if they did 4/week, it would be more like 20-25% growth on a weekly basis. Of course, that leaves a decision on what to do with the a/c the other three days (pick another capital, probably MEL as they'd be able to cycle aircraft between HK route and LAX route then).