Upgrade Probability SYD-HKG

[diablo]

Hi All

My Dad and I are travelling SYD - HKG on 24th September (QF 127), and have both requested upgrades 3 months ago. We're both PS, but its better than nothing I suppose. Seatcounter is showing D sold out and showing 4 J seats and 4 C seats left, which I am assuming is 8 seats left. What's the likelihood of both of us getting an upgrade with this few a number of free seats?

I notice that the same flight leaving the next day is relatively empty, as is QF 187 leaving later that afternoon (showing 9D 9J 9C). My second question is, if the upgrade is unlikely on my current booking, is it worth changing to the later flight, or the one on the 25th, in order to increase the odds? I guess this would also push us to the back of the upgrade queue, which may not be a problem depending on how many other PS's have requested upgrades.

Any advice would be much appreciated.

[milehighclub]

4J and 4C doesn't mean there are 8 seats left. It reflects the number of seats they are willing to sell at each fare bracket. If you take away 4C seats, it's very possible that the J inventory will also read zero. Of course if you take away 4C seats, there still could be another 4 for sale, another 10 or a whole cabin full. But with D inventory at 0 indicates the cabin is starting to fill

The current loads are as follows

QF127 as it happens does have 4 spare seats
QF187 has 24 spare seats

QF127 on the 25th has 21 spare seats
QF187 on the 25th has 22 spare seats

[diablo]

Thanks for the reply, milehighclub. Based on the loads you have indicated, and your experience, do you think it would be worth changing flights to increase the chance of an upgrade? I can quite easily change to QF 187 if this would give us a better chance, but I am also concerned about moving to the back of the upgrade queue. So just to be clear, there are ONLY 4 seats left in Business class on QF127?

Also, where did you manage to find the current loads in business? Thanks!

[diablo]

I spoke to Qantas, who also confirmed that there were only 4 seats left. The consultant was quite surprised at how I knew the number of seats remaining in business . She also concurred that the likelihood of getting two upgrades was quite remote. Anyhow, I changed my booking to the later flight, which seatcounter is showing as 9D 9J 9C. So hopefully both of us will be upgraded.

[serfty]

... Also, where did you manage to find the current loads in business? Thanks!

Indications from this and previous posts are that M/H/C works in the industry; presumably closely related to QF.

... The consultant was quite surprised at how I knew the number of seats remaining in business ...

While the provision of such information can be very useful, there is generally some commercial sensitivity involved. In which case it is not always a good idea to mention such facts/figures like the 4 remaining seats to other consultants when utilising the information, lest the provider of such has subsequent issues.

[jpk]

Just say you got the info from seatcounter.com or expertflyer.

[equus]

Hi All
What's the likelihood of both of us getting an upgrade with this few a number of free seats?

The likelihood of you both getting upgrades will depend on whether or not it is the one booking, and a single upgrade request for both. This will get you either both of you or neither upgraded. If you are on separate bookings, and have each requested, then one of you may get upgraded and the other not.

As far as chances, as long as there are enough seats (and I would count +1 spare), the chances are not zero.

Flying BNE-HKG in August, we had an upgrade request registered early (not quite 3 months, but close), for 2 Pax, requested by PS. 5 days out, and availability was down to J3 D0, then flipped around up and down J4 D0, J3 D0. 24 hours out, was J3 D0. (Thanks to seatcounter for the stats).

The final result - we both got upgraded , and the flighted departed with 1 empty seat in J (presumably the last one reserved by Yield Management for last minute contingencies).

YMMV.

[diablo]

Thanks for the advice everyone. Serfty, I told the consultant that I found the number of remaining seats from seatcounter, so they won't know that the info came from here .