Points upgrade on overbooked flight?

[djfuzz]

Just wanted to see if my thinking on this is right -

We are heading off on the first leg of our honeymoon from MEL-HKG on QF29 this Sunday, and booked PE (T class) and submitted a points upgrade for J.

Seat counter shows the flight as A1 B2 F2 Y2, everything else 0, so it appears that the flight is pretty much overbooked.

Will we be upgraded ahead of op-ups, or does that depend solely on whether QF's quota of setas for points upgrades for this flight has been exhausted?

My conclusion (which I am seeking to clarify) is that if J is overbooked, high status pax with points upgrades will be upped to F, then WPs and SGs will be op-upped. If this creates any vacancies in J, we will be behind any elites (we are both currently NB, no OW status yet either) with points upgrades but ahead of any who might be op-upped, right?

I figure the chances of it going through are slim given how packed the flight is, so luckily we booked PE and can enjoy that service on this leg of the trip and save those points for later.

[serfty]

That flight is full; it may even be oversold.

I believe in the general course of processing that J->F upgrades are assessed first, then Y+/Y->J, followed by Y->Y+ before any op-ups are considered.

[MelUser]

My own experience indicates that points upgrades are processed ahead of opups (other than last minute opups).

My own view is that you have a good chance.

Please let us know if you get your upgrade!

[djfuzz]

Thanks serfty, that is exactly why I ask - if Y goes to 0, and is presumably oversold, I imagine they'd need to be shifting some pax up the chain by op ups to fit everyone in before they start offloading anyone to other flights (?) - in which case, I was a bit confused as to whether the imperative to op up or points upgrade came from below rather than above. I'm sure it's all part of the yield management, just interested to see how it relates to us.

MelUser - will definitely let you know, I am rather excited either way since I haven't had the chance to try PE before (and we've been looking forward to this trip for quite some time!)

[serfty]

...- if Y goes to 0, and is presumably oversold ...

I would not be surprised if Y is already oversold; there may be up to 2 F seats remaining (perhaps none) and Qantas Y/M are willing to sell those seats for even high WHY fares.

[djfuzz]

... which begs the question (putting aside the issue of points or op ups) what do they do if the flight closes and is full and oversold in each class? Offload people to other flights that depart later based on fares/status?

[NM]

... which begs the question (putting aside the issue of points or op ups) what do they do if the flight closes and is full and oversold in each class? Offload people to other flights that depart later based on fares/status?

They generally know at least 24 hours out if this is likely to happen. They then start to call some passengers offering alternate flight/routings to get them to their destination.

[odoherty]

... which begs the question (putting aside the issue of points or op ups) what do they do if the flight closes and is full and oversold in each class? Offload people to other flights that depart later based on fares/status?

I've been told on good authority that Qantas does not oversell the top cabin on an aircraft.

[docjames]

qantas.com still offering up to 5 seats for sale in supersaver (about $1k, full econ (about $1600), J or F. interestingly doesnt matter if try and book 5 in J or F so empty seats all at front of a/c but they'll still take supersaver which surprises me (you'd think it'd be full Y or above only).

Try to book 6 in any class and no go.

[NM]

I've been told on good authority that Qantas does not oversell the top cabin on an aircraft.

That is also my understanding. However, last minute aircraft changes can result in less J seats than originally anticipated as being available for sale. Or other flights disruptions can also mean there are more people wanting to get on a particular flight than there are seats. While this technically is not an "overselling" situation, some agents will look at the existence of a waitlist/stand-by list and still use the term "oversold". This is why there will always be people who can cite examples of where "Qantas oversold J or F on my flight".