Award flights to Buenos Aires Dec 09?

[ozrock]

Hi All

Long time reader, first time poster.
I recently obtained Gold QFF status, and realised last week that with a bit of family transferring from the Mrs, we had enough points to fly Melb-Buenos Aires return in business.
Luckily, i've been able to get us home - i picked up 2 seats departing late Jan.
However, it seems there are no FF seats in any class between Dec 10 and Jan 10 from Melb to Buenos Aires. (I'm looking at Dec 26 specifically, as i figured it would be quieter between Xmas and NYE).
Using the Qantas online booking facility, it doesn't appear that they're down to selling the last of the seats! (In fact, it shows that one way PE is only about $100 more than one way economy - which would suggest to a mug punter like me that the flight is not particulaly full.)
I'm conscious that we need to get over there somehow, but i'm not sure whether we should buy tickets and try for a points upgrade, or keep checking everyday to see if QFF seats come up - and if so, how long to wait.
I figured that if the seats were becoming hard for them to fill, that they'd release more QFF seats to burn off some of their liability in that regard. Doesn't seem that way!

Any advice appreciated.

[NM]

ozrock, welcome to AFF.

The number of seats sold on a flight has no bearing on the number of award seats available at any point in time. Qantas allocates a set number of award seats for each flight (varies by aircraft type, route, date etc) and once they have been consumed, they will not release more until they decide its time to review the flight yield. That review is unlikely to be triggered until much closer to the travel date.

Its very common for all the premium cabin award seats to be taken in the first few weeks they are available and they may not sell any paid tickets until the last month or two before travel.

Many FF members plan 350 days ahead and actually book their premium cabin awards on the day that they are released into the reservation system. And then there are members of the partner FF programs (like AA, BA, CO, CX etc) who are waiting to pick up the scraps a few weeks later when they are released to partners. So the chance of finding premium cabin award seats 6 or 7 months is greatly reduced. For example, I booked in November last year for a premium cabin award trip in September this year.

Finding award availability during school holidays is always tough. But I have found in the past that pre-Christmas availability is always harder to find than post-Christmas availability. Paid business travel seems to still be in high demand right up until Christmas and drops off dramatically in January when leisure travel demand seems to peak.

You may have to wait until around September to November to find more premium cabin FF award seats released for December travel. Purchasing a one-way long-haul international flight is generally a very expensive way to travel as they normally work out significantly more than 50% of the cost of a return trip when using full-service airlines like Qantas (this is different to domestic and trans-Tasman flights where cheap one-ways are generally available).

[kpc]

Hi NM, do you have any thoughts about a Y seat opening up from Syd to Eze in May 2010? On the same day, there are award seats in PE, J and F...I just don't have enough points for these premium classes2 days earlier there is a Y award seat, but this date does not suit me as well). I suppose I could book the non preferred date, and, if and when my prefeered date appears, pay the 2500 pt date change fee.

[NM]

Hi NM, do you have any thoughts about a Y seat opening up from Syd to Eze in May 2010? On the same day, there are award seats in PE, J and F...I just don't have enough points for these premium classes2 days earlier there is a Y award seat, but this date does not suit me as well). I suppose I could book the non preferred date, and, if and when my prefeered date appears, pay the 2500 pt date change fee.

No magic crystal ball. With the EZE flight only being 3 or so times a week, you lose some flexibility. Your suggestion to snag the available seat is probably wise.