Falling!!! Help!!!.
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Location: Home, Work, Airport, Here (not in that order!)
Posts: 4,518
Re: Falling!!! Help!!!
Doesn't worry me at the moment, with no US trips planned. Next one is in Nov - so I'll be watching closely.
Perhaps the US has started turning the corner in their economic woes and futures markets are seeing Obama as a stable future leader. Fuel is coming down, and the $ is improving.
Then again, I'm not a finance expert, so I don't really know!
Member of: AA Exec Plat; QF LTG; PC Plat; HHonors Gold
Posts: 10,055
Re: Falling!!! Help!!!
Its good for people paid in US$ (such as overseas per-diem allowances). The reason is partly due to the outlook for interest rates in Australia. When they are on the way up, the A$ is popular and increases in value, when the next move in interest rates is expected to be down, the A$ is less popular for investors so its value drops against other currencies. So people with mortgages will appreciate a falling A$.
Looking at "Alan Kohler" tonight, it seems the price for most major resources fell today continuing a recent trend.
As the Oz economy is seen in financial markets as resorces driven, when you couple this with the almost certain chance of imminent reserve bank interest rate cuts, it's a double whammy at the moment (if not Squared).
I'm just glad I booked over 1K in fares at 96% last week.
It's good for me as I am back to the USA next week, and the AUD has dropped about 10 cents in under three weeks. Can't complain too much, as in 2001 I was only getting 51cents conversation rate.
I'll gamble and say I think the exchange rate against the $US will appreciate above $0.90 US in the not too distant future. Three or four months ago a number of economists were tipping parity by year's end. I'd be surprised if this happened but I think the quick devaluation recently will turnaround.
I always said if the AUD = USD then buy USD big since the market would get spooked and it would not be long before it dropped again.
But its a bit of a pain if you want to book fares at the moment
I am sure it will move up and down and your guess is a good as mine as to what it will do next since it does not really move as you would expect, if it moves somebody just comes up with a new reason that works that day of the week.
E
Sorry guys. Blame me. I am out of the country at the moment, and true to form the dollar tumbles when I do that. I am back next week, so the tumble may stop
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