Safety of crediting to AA (threat of AA bankruptcy)?

[beardoc]

With the time-limited increase in Starwood point transfers from Amex Membership rewards (ends 30th September), I was thinking of transferring my MR rewards points to AA through SPG. However, I won't have quite enough for the reward that I want, and it will be another 12-24 months before I have enough points through QANTAS flying) to get the free flight that I want (a Business Class OneWorld ATW fare on AA points).

However, with AA losing something like US$3 million a day (I think I remember figures of around US$10.40 per passenger) at the moment, I'm wondering about the advisability of doing this, given the points are more or less going to sit in the AAdvantage program and if AA really does go into Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection, then I'm not sure that losing all the points will be worth the risk. I am debating instead accumulating Krisflyer points (both on Visa and Amex spend, only sending the points to Krisflyer as I need to spend them).

It's only the pressure of the 30th September deadline that would have me thinking of doing this earlier - if there wasn't this deadline, then I would of course keep the points accumulating with American Express.

So, those of you that are seasoned candy thieves from AA, what are you doing and are you concerned?

[Mal]

The US way of going bankrupt (Chapter 11 or Chapter 7 depending on whether you can re-organise your affairs or have to wind up) is quite interesting. It's not really like the Ansett affair.

For FF'ers, I don't really see AA possibly going into Chapter 11 as a threat. Other airlines have done the same thing without many consequences to FF'ers. It can actually help because then the airline has protection while it continues to trade.

However, to go into Chapter 11 (rather than winding up) you need to have a recovery plan. How can you write a recovery plan with fuel at the current price and gas guzzling planes?

I think the various bits of AA have value to someone else (including the cash cow AAdvantage program), so I think the miles would be protected regardless of the outcome. But it's really a risk you have to take - and potentially one that everyone faces daily with every other FF scheme you credit to.

[drron]

Yes it is a risk,but can you tell me of an airline without risk?Now Qantas has been run well but if oil keeps going up the only way to survive will be fare increases.With Australia so far from anywhere else apart from the Land of the long White Cloud it is quite likely the numbers flying to and from Australia will decline,maybe dramatically.
As has been said bankruptcy US style is far different to Australia and you should have time to burn your points.The only thing I worry about is that if AA do go into Chapter 11 it probably means a much leaner operation if they are to survive so less redemption chances-might bring them back to the QF level.

[tgh]

I'm on a steep learning curve .. and have been deliberating the value of transferring some mm's to starwood to aa .. to get a D>F upgrade on a one world segment . ( AA nrt>JFK).

I can't even imagine how one asks for the same upgrades on LAN

I'm not flying the segment until late December .. and at the present rate of ecomomic decline ..anything could happen.

As much as I can figure .. kangaru wants 35k QFF points , and I'm not sure how one asks for a one world carrier upgrade with kangaru anyway .. -v- the risks involved in transferring points through a third player, and saving 10k points.

There is some comfort in mm's .
Amex seems a last bastion of old world credibility and reliability .. for how long ??

[beardoc]

There is some comfort in mm's .
Amex seems a last bastion of old world credibility and reliability .. for how long ??

Except for the fact that their platinum charge card in Australia charges more and offers much less than an equivalent card in the UK.

[drron]

On the last 3 occasions I or my family have travelled AA NRT-JFK they have been offering upgrades from J-F in the AC for $US500.The last time was when our extended family travelled in Dec 2007.They were able to get 6 D seats 4 months out so this suggests the loads on AA are probably pretty light.
At the moment for december MilesAAver F awards are available virtually every day in december and for 1 in 3 days in the next month.Problem always is it has to be the day you are flying.

[Evan]

Taking it a little O/T the US airlines have already have re-organised them selfs so much if they run into major issues this time they could really be in trouble ! oh well they cant really all fail, they will just need to raise prices and people still need to travel so they will pay, they have no choice.
E

[NM]

As much as I can figure .. kangaru wants 35k QFF points , and I'm not sure how one asks for a one world carrier upgrade with kangaru anyway .. -v- the risks involved in transferring points through a third player, and saving 10k points.

QF FF points can only be used to upgrade QF operated and numbered flights. AA miles can only be used to upgrade AA operated and numbered flights. So you cannot use QF FF points to upgrade an AA flight from NRT to JFK.